Lede

Brexit was sold like a national awakening and delivered like a delayed invoice shoved under the door.

Hermit Off Script

Brexit is the British racket where very rich operators ask to become even richer, wrap the grab in flags, and then act surprised when the working class ends up financing the theatre. I have no objection to greed being greedy. That is practically its job. I object to the sermon. I object to the holy language of “control” and “freedom” being used to sell a settlement that the government’s own 2025 reset pitch said “isn’t working for anyone”, with producers facing red tape, checks, and in some cases being unable to export at all. The Office for Budget Responsibility still says the post-Brexit relationship means long-run productivity 4 per cent lower than if the UK had remained in the EU, with imports and exports around 15 per cent lower in the long run. So when the hardliners still puff out their chests and call the rupture a triumph, I do not hear Churchill. I hear a salesman praising the fire while charging extra for the extinguisher. Even Starmer’s answer is not a full return but a slow, careful repair job: Reuters reported on 1 April 2026 that he again ruled out the single market and customs union while calling for closer partnership with Europe to undo some of the “deep damage” of Brexit. That is not betrayal. That is what politics looks like when ideology has already driven the car into a ditch and somebody finally reaches for the jack. Britain also needs to stop cosplaying empire. It is not 1910. It is a medium-sized economy with paperwork, energy bills and a political class still drunk on nostalgia. The public has moved further than the priesthood of permanent Brexit. YouGov found 62 per cent of Britons say Brexit has been more failure than success, 56 per cent say it was wrong to leave, and 66 per cent want a closer relationship with Europe. Recent Westminster polling also shows how cracked the whole system now looks, with Reform UK on 23 per cent, Greens and Conservatives on 19 per cent, and Labour on 18 per cent in YouGov’s 29 to 30 March 2026 figures. That does not prove salvation, but it does prove the old parties are now walking on floorboards that creak.

Brexit promised control. What it delivered was managed decline with better slogans.

What does not make sense

• Selling “sovereignty” as the grand prize, then crawling back toward EU alignment and oversight the moment farms, exporters and supermarkets need oxygen again.
• Calling Brexit an economic triumph while the OBR still assumes a 4 per cent long-run productivity hit and roughly 15 per cent lower trade volumes than staying in the EU.
• Screaming “betrayal” at any repair, even though the government’s own line is that the current arrangement “isn’t working for anyone”.
• Pretending the public wants harder separation when most Britons say Brexit has been more failure than success and most want closer ties, not looser ones.
• Asking workers to worship disruption while the best-connected people remain the ones most able to monetise the chaos.

Sense check / The numbers

1. The OBR says the post-Brexit settlement will leave long-run UK productivity 4 per cent lower than if the UK had remained in the EU, and that imports and exports will both be around 15 per cent lower in the long run. [OBR]
2. In its 17 May 2025 summit briefing, the UK government said the previous Brexit deal “isn’t working for anyone” and pointed to red tape, failed exports, higher bills and holiday queues as part of the case for a reset. [Gov.uk]
3. Reuters reported that the May 2025 UK-EU reset was presented by Britain as adding nearly GBP9 billion to the economy by 2040, against an economy of about GBP2.6 trillion. That is repair money, not a victory parade. [Reuters]
4. YouGov found in May 2025 that 62 per cent of Britons thought Brexit had been more failure than success, 56 per cent said it was wrong to leave, 53 per cent would support rejoining, and 66 per cent wanted a closer relationship with the EU than the UK has now. [YouGov]
5. In YouGov’s 29 to 30 March 2026 Westminster voting intention, Reform UK led on 23 per cent, Greens and Conservatives were on 19 per cent, Labour was on 18 per cent, and the Lib Dems were on 12 per cent. [YouGov]

The sketch

Scene 1: The Sovereignty Till
Panel description: A supermarket checkout shaped like a ballot box. A tired worker unloads groceries while, behind the till, suited financiers quietly siphon coins into a velvet bag labelled “opportunity”.
Dialogue:
“We took back control.”
“Lovely. Did anyone take back my wages?”

Scene 2: The Repair Shop of Treason
Panel description: A mechanic tries to patch a cracked boat marked “Brexit” while pundits in rosettes scream at him from the pavement and sell souvenir mugs saying “Still Winning”.
Dialogue:
“Don’t fix it. That ruins the myth.”
“Yes, heaven forbid the engine starts.”

Scene 3: Empire Re-enactment Society
Panel description: Politicians in miniature admiral uniforms pose on a small island podium, waving maps and speeches, while a practical bridge to Europe is being rebuilt quietly behind them by exhausted workers.
Dialogue:
“Britain stands alone.”
“It can barely stand its paperwork.”

What to watch, not the show

• Trade friction falling hardest on goods exporters and smaller firms, while better-insulated sectors cope more easily.
• Dynamic alignment returning through the side door because reality does not care about referendum cosplay.
• Media nostalgia functioning as a business model long after the policy has stopped making economic sense.
• Electoral fragmentation rewarding noise merchants, even while public opinion shifts toward closer ties with Europe.
• Donor and brand incentives that treat national decline as a monetisable subscription product.

The Hermit take

Brexit is no longer a plan. It is a franchise.
Workers deserved an economy. They got a sermon and a surcharge.

Keep or toss

Keep / Toss
Keep the practical repair.
Toss the patriotic snake oil, the nostalgia cosplay, and the permanent grift built on workers paying for elite mistakes.

Sources

• Keir Starmer is plotting ‘new Brexit betrayal’ on the tenth anniversary of Britain’s historic vote to leave the EU: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15702081/Keir-Starmer-plotting-new-Brexit-betrayal-tenth-anniversary-Britains-historic-vote-leave-EU.html
• Office for Budget Responsibility – Brexit analysis: https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/
• Office for Budget Responsibility – How are our Brexit trade forecast assumptions performing?: https://obr.uk/box/how-are-our-brexit-trade-forecast-assumptions-performing/
• GOV.UK – UK-EU Summit, 17 May 2025: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-eu-summit
• Reuters – UK strikes EU trade and defence reset in ‘new era’ for relations: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/hold-britain-poised-reset-trade-defence-ties-with-eu-2025-05-18/
• Reuters – UK’s Starmer calls for closer Europe ties as Iran war strains US relations: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-requires-closer-eu-partnerships-due-volatile-world-starmer-says-2026-04-01/
• House of Commons Library – Resetting the UK’s relationship with the European Union: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10207/
• YouGov – Britons back closer relationship with Europe as UK and EU reset relations: https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/52211-britons-back-closer-relationship-with-europe-as-uk-and-eu-reset-relations
• YouGov – Voting intention, 29-30 March 2026: Ref 23%, Grn 19%, Con 19%, Lab 18%, LD 12%: https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54444-voting-intention-29-30-march-2026-ref-23-grn-19-con-19-lab-18-ld-12