Lede
Everyone shouts apocalypse; the data whispers rollout takes years and money.
What does not make sense
- Selling panic to workers while pitching AI to investors as free growth.
- Calling it a job wipeout today when most firms are still in trials.
- Pretending SMEs can afford big tech toys on enterprise pricing.
- Boasting about robots, omitting the integration bill and downtime.
- Using fear as a slide, not a plan for skills and wages.
Sense check / The numbers
- UK adoption is rising, not rampant. 23% of businesses used some AI in late Sep 2025, up from 9% in Sep 2023. Trend is steady, not instant. [ONS]
- Size matters. In the EU 2024 data, 41% of large firms used AI, but only about 11% of small and 21% of medium firms did. Diffusion gap is real. [Eurostat]
- Jobs are exposed, not doomed. IMF says about 60% of jobs in advanced economies are impacted by AI. Roughly half may benefit, half may face pressure. Nuance, not sirens. [IMF]
- Robots are climbing, but slowly across the base. Factory robot density doubled in 7 years to 162 per 10k workers in 2023, and 177 in 2024. Growth takes years and capital. [IFR 2024; IFR 2025]
- Costs and skills block SMEs. UK’s SME Digital Adoption Taskforce flags finance as the major obstacle. OECD finds training costs 43% and hardware 37% top the pain list. [UK SME Taskforce; OECD D4SME]
- Net jobs outlook is mixed. By 2027 employers expect 69m roles created and 83m eliminated, a net minus 14m. Change, not extinction. [WEF 2023]
The sketch
Scene 1: Boardroom projector. Slide reads: AI NOW. Footnote in 6pt: pilot in Q4.
Scene 2: High street shop. Owner checks a quote for an AI add-on. The total blinks, then adds “plus integration”.
Scene 3: Press podium. Spokesperson: Jobs will transform. Worker holds a payslip: line item reads “Training: TBD”.
What to watch, not the show
- Procurement math: licences, integration, downtime, support, and the retrain bill.
- Diffusion curves: large first, supply chain next, SMEs last.
- Sector split: office tasks get hit early; hands-on roles wait for robotics ROI.
- Skills policy: paid time to learn or just a slogan.
- Wage effects: productivity gains need bargaining, not vibes.
The Hermit take
Fear sells. Value ships slower.
Count rollouts, not headlines.
Keep or toss
Keep evidence.
Toss hype.
Sources
ONS – Business insights, AI use 2 Oct 2025:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/bulletins/businessinsightsandimpactontheukeconomy/2october2025
Eurostat – Use of AI in enterprises, 2024 shares by size (PDF):
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/SEPDF/cache/106920.pdf
IMF – AI will transform the global economy, 14 Jan 2024:
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity
IFR – Robot density doubled in seven years, 20 Nov 2024:
https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/global-robot-density-in-factories-doubled-in-seven-years
IFR – World Robotics 2025 Executive Summary (PDF):
https://ifr.org/img/worldrobotics/Executive_Summary_WR_2025_Industrial_Robots.pdf
UK Government – SME Digital Adoption Taskforce final report, 31 Jul 2025:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sme-digital-adoption-taskforce-final-report/sme-digital-adoption-taskforce-final-report
OECD – D4SME survey policy highlights (PDF), 2024:
https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/networks/oecd-digital-for-smes-global-initiative/FINAL-D4SME-2024-Survey-Policy-Highlights.pdf
WEF – Future of Jobs 2023 digest, 30 Apr 2023:
https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2023/digest/
