Lede
If your plan is “more of the same,” expect more of the mess.

What does not make sense

• Calling it victory while the hostages are still not home.
• Calling it deterrence while your list of friends gets shorter.
• Treating an ICC warrant as a PR problem, not a legal one.
• Pretending Hamas’ crimes absolve your own obligations under the law.
• Selling “security” that delivers neither safety nor stability.

Sense check / The numbers

1. ICC warrants exist. On 21 November 2024, ICC judges issued arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant (and for Hamas leaders) over alleged Gaza war crimes including starvation as a method of warfare. Appeals to halt the process failed; judges rejected Israel’s bid to withdraw the warrants on 16 July 2025. This isn’t punditry. It’s the court record.
2. Hostages remain. As of late summer 2025, about 48 hostages were still held in Gaza, with at least 25 believed dead; negotiations continue and headlines promise a breakthrough “soon”. Hope is not a policy.
3. ICJ orders stand. The World Court’s provisional measures (Jan–May 2024) require Israel to enable aid and prevent incitement, among other duties. Binding orders, not vibes.

The sketch

• Scene one: A lectern: “We are winning.” Behind it, a board reads “Warrants: active.”
• Scene two: banquet teleprompter reads “values and partnership” above an empty policy folder.
• Scene three: A map of allies. Pins fall off the board, one by one.

What to watch, not the show

• Concrete hostage-release deals and written timelines, not “days away” chatter.
• Compliance with ICJ measures and real-world aid flows, not podium lines.
• The ICC docket moves slowly, but it moves. Treat it as law, not theatre.

The Hermit take

Hamas committed atrocities. That truth does not launder anyone else’s crimes. Law is not a menu; you don’t get to skip the courses you dislike.

Keep or toss

Toss the bravado. Keep the hostages, the law, and the allies.

Sources

• ICC warrants (issuance and filings):
  Source: https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-issuance-arrest-warrants-situation-state-palestine
  Source: https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/CourtRecords/0902ebd180a0ebd8.pdf
• Judges reject bid to withdraw warrants (16 July 2025):
  Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/icc-judges-reject-israels-request-withdraw-netanyahu-arrest-warrant-2025-07-16/
• ICJ provisional measures (Jan–May 2024):
  Source: https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/01/26/gaza-world-court-orders-israel-prevent-genocide
  Source: https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192
• Hostages numbers and status (late 2025):
  Source: https://www.ajc.org/news/who-are-the-hostages-still-held-by-hamas
  Source: https://apnews.com/article/mideast-wars-hostages-d37b0d5bb5ce4340f3a8a48533948da0
  Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/04/netanyahu-gaza-hostages-00594269
  Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/rubio-says-gaza-war-not-yet-over-priority-is-get-hostages-out-2025-10-05/