Lede
When both the invader and the self declared saviour demand that Ukraine shrink itself, you are not watching peace talks, you are watching a mugging with paperwork.
This is what happens when bullies start calling it peace.
When a school bully steals your lunch, everyone knows who is at fault. When a nuclear bully steals your land, kills your people, then gets invited back to the VIP club if you sign on the dotted line, suddenly it is called a “28 point peace plan”.
Let us name the games, because this is right: there are two bullies here, and they are closer in mindset than their flags suggest.
1. The first bully: Russia, textbook version
Russia did not “stumble” into Ukraine. It invaded on 24 February 2022, tried a decapitation strike on Kyiv, then shifted to grinding, attritional war when that failed. Millions fled. By early 2025, around 3.7 million people inside Ukraine are displaced and about 6.9 million have fled as refugees.
Civilian casualties are not an abstract headline. UN monitors recorded over 14,000 civilians killed and nearly 40,000 injured by October 2025, and they say the real number is higher.
On top of that, you have a meat grinder for soldiers. Estimates suggest tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops killed and hundreds of thousands wounded. Russian losses are even higher, with some estimates putting Russian military dead well over 200,000 and total casualties near or above one million.
This is not “security concerns”. This is a state bullying a neighbour with artillery and mass graves. A bully with tanks instead of fists.
2. The second bully: the “deal maker” with a deadline
Now enter bully number two, the one in a blue tie who keeps telling everyone he could end the war in 24 hours.
Trump’s draft 28 point plan does the following:
- Ukraine is banned from NATO.
- Russia is readmitted to the G8.
- Ukraine must formally give up Donbas, recognise Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk as Russia, and freeze front lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia where they stand now.
- Ukraine has to cap its army at 600,000 and stay neutral.
In return, Russia gets sanctions relief and a red carpet back into the global economy, plus a conditional promise that sanctions return if it invades again. Some frozen Russian assets, around 100 billion dollars, would go to reconstruction, with extra sweeteners for Western investors.
That is not peace. That is a protection racket:
“Nice little country you have there. Shame if your only major defender walked away next Thursday.”
Trump has reportedly set a Thanksgiving deadline for Zelensky to accept or risk losing US support. Ukrainian officials openly call the plan a capitulation and Zelensky himself says Ukraine faces a choice between its dignity and a key partner.
That is bully logic: time pressure, unequal bargaining power, and the threat that if the victim does not sign, the real beating starts.
3. Two bullies, one worldview
On paper, bully one and bully two are enemies. One bombs cities, the other sends weapons. But look under the slogans.
Trump has repeatedly praised “strongmen” like Hungary’s Viktor Orban and described his authoritarian style as something admirable, literally saying “sometimes you need a strongman”.
He called Putin’s pretext for invading Ukraine “savvy” and “genius” when Russia recognised breakaway regions as “independent” as a step to war.
This is the common script:
- Borders are flexible if you are “strong”.
- Treat smaller countries as bargaining chips.
- Human beings are props in a leader’s personal drama.
So you get one bully who redraws the map with rockets and another bully who redraws the map with a pen and a deadline. Different tools, same contempt.
4. Corruption and martial law: the dirty fig leaf
Yes, Ukraine has corruption. Everyone serious admits it, including Ukrainians themselves, and even key partners in Europe are talking openly about scandals and reforms.
But using corruption as the story to justify carving up a country is like blaming a burglary victim because their lock was cheap.
Under martial law, corruption is not some victimless game. Officials who steal fuel, food or money are gambling with their own lives and with their neighbours. They can be jailed, even tried by military courts. The personal risk for corrupt actors is higher than in most peacetime democracies.
Meanwhile, the big strategic corruption is not just about cash. It is about promises. Ukraine was promised “never again”, “European values”, “sovereignty”, “Article 5 vibes”. Then the biggest arsenal in the free world turns up with a contract that says:
“Remember those values? They were negotiable.”
That is corruption at the level of civilisation. Selling principles wholesale and calling it realism.
5. Territory for peace: the repeat prescription for future wars
The point about giving up territory “which is still yours” hits the core. Under the UN Charter, borders are not meant to change by force. That is the one rule that stops the whole map turning back into a 19th century empire food fight.
This plan tells every future aggressor:
- Start a war.
- Hold as much land as you can.
- Kill enough people that everyone else gets tired.
- Eventually, a “mediator” will arrive and freeze your gains in place.
Ukraine would be told to give up land while millions of its people are displaced, and the aggressor gets let back into G8 meetings and global finance, all before any real justice or accountability for war crimes.
That is not a peace plan. It is a loyalty card for bullies.
6. The free world bully: when the bodyguard starts acting like the abuser
There is an ugly symmetry here.
Russia uses brute force, propaganda, and prison to enforce obedience.
The self styled defender of democracy uses economic levers, security guarantees, and diplomatic isolation to enforce obedience.
Different methods, same message:
“We, not you, decide your future. Your freedom is rented, not owned.”
If the United States says to Ukraine:
“You can keep your dignity or our support, not both,”
it is not standing up to bullying. It is running a franchise of it.
This is how countries lose their dignity and freedom. Not in one grand surrender, but in a series of “pragmatic” deals where the smaller state gets told to “be realistic” until its map looks like Swiss cheese.
7. Russia’s victory that tastes like defeat
Observers are right to point at Russias own future. Even if Moscow gains the territory it seeks, what then?
- Hundreds of thousands of its soldiers are dead.
- A generation of young men is missing or traumatised.
- Sanctions have pushed the economy into dependency on a few partners, while technology and capital flee.
That is not a stable empire. That is a country burning its seed corn to keep the throne room warm.
A state that defines itself by bullying neighbours eventually finds it has nothing else left: no soft power, no trust, just fear. That is not a future. It is a long, slow collapse with parades.
8. The real danger: when democracies learn the wrong lesson
The worst part is not that dictators behave like dictators. That is in the job description.
The real danger is that democracies look at that and quietly copy the mindset:
- Strongman envy.
- Shortcut diplomacy.
- Voters sold comforting fairy tales about “ending war in 24 hours”.
Once “might makes right” becomes acceptable language again, it does not stay on the Russian side of the border. It seeps into migration policy, protest policing, media freedom, and elections everywhere.
You lose freedom when you hand your cards to a bigger power and trust that they will be kind. You lose the future when the supposed guardians of a rules based order decide that rules are optional for friends and only strict for enemies.
9. Where this leaves Ukraine
Zelensky is trapped in an impossible corridor:
- Say yes, and you amputate your own country, reward aggression, and destroy any remaining trust that your people have in the word “ally”.
- Say no, and you risk losing your biggest partner and facing another winter of missile strikes, blackouts, and funerals.
That is what bullying looks like at geopolitical scale. Pretend choice. Real pain either way.
10. The straight line through all of this
It is fair to ask how two bullies on opposite sides of the freedom story end up aligned.
Because both are selling the same old myth:
- Power first.
- People second.
- Principles last, if at all.
One carries a portrait of the tsar. The other wraps himself in the flag and smiles for cameras with other “strongmen”. In the mirror, they are not that different.
If the so called defenders of democracy want the world to believe in their values, they have one job that cannot be outsourced:
Stop acting like a smarter, cleaner version of the thing they say they oppose.
Until that happens, bullies will keep winning headlines, losing generations, and calling the ruins “peace”.
What does not make sense
- A state that invaded in 2022 is rewarded with land, sanctions relief, and a ticket back into the G8, while the invaded country is told to cut its army.
- Ukraine is ordered to stay out of NATO forever, but is also told to trust vague security promises from the same people pushing it to surrender territory.
- After three years of mass displacement, civilian deaths, and destroyed homes, the pressure is on Kyiv to be “realistic”, not on Moscow to undo its crimes.
- Washington is meant to defend a rules based order, yet drafts a plan that normalises land grabs by force and imposes deadlines on the victim, not the aggressor.
- The same leaders who claim to stand for democracy praise strongmen, admire their “savvy”, then present a “deal” that reads like Putin’s wish list with better fonts.
Sense check / The numbers
- Since 24 February 2022, the UN human rights office has recorded 53,006 civilian casualties in Ukraine, including 14,534 killed and 38,472 injured, and says the real figure is higher. [OHCHR]
- By early 2025, UNHCR estimates 10.6 million Ukrainians displaced, almost a quarter of the pre war population, with 3.7 million uprooted inside the country and 6.9 million refugees abroad. More than 2 million homes, around 10 percent of housing, are damaged or destroyed. [UNHCR]
- Drafts of the 28 point Trump peace plan would ban Ukraine from joining NATO, cap its armed forces at 600,000 troops, require withdrawal from the Donbas frontline, and force Kyiv to recognise Russian control of Crimea and occupied parts of Luhansk and Donetsk. [Guardian, Irish Times, LIGA]
- In return, Russia would be readmitted to the G8, freed from most Western sanctions, and regain the majority of its frozen assets, while some 100 billion dollars in seized funds would be channelled into reconstruction and investment schemes. [Telegraph, Euractiv, Daily Sabah]
- A recent UN briefing told the Security Council that civilian casualties in Kyiv during the first ten months of 2025 were nearly 3.8 times higher than in all of 2024, driven by intensified Russian aerial attacks, yet the new plan largely freezes current front lines in place. [UN brief]
The sketch
Scene 1: The schoolyard
- Panel: A small kid in a torn yellow and blue jacket stands between two giants. One giant holds a bloody baseball bat labelled “Invasion 2022”. The other carries a contract titled “Peace Plan 2025” with a countdown timer.
- Giant with bat: “Give me your lunch money and half your backpack.”
- Giant with contract: “Sign here that it was his lunch anyway, then we can all be friends again.”
Scene 2: The VIP club
- Panel: A velvet rope in front of a door marked “G8”. The bully with the bat is polishing his boots, covered in mud and debris. The doorman in a stars and stripes tie holds a clipboard.
- Doorman: “If the kid signs away the playground, we can put you back on the guest list.”
- From off panel, a voice: “What about the broken windows and bodies?”
- Doorman, shrugging: “We will address those in a future statement.”
Scene 3: The map on the table
- Panel: A map of Ukraine sliced into labelled jigsaw pieces: “Crimea”, “Donbas”, “Security Zone”, “No NATO”. The small kid reaches for a missing piece while both giants move other pieces with smug smiles.
- Kid: “What about my home?”
- Contract giant: “You still have some pieces. That is called compromise.”
- Bat giant: “And if you complain, we can always rearrange again.”
What to watch, not the show
- Sky News lays out the real cost if Europe ducks this fight, warning that Ukraine’s security, and therefore Europe’s security, will rest fully on Europe and everyone could pay the price. [Sky News]
- The normalisation of changing borders by force, then rubber stamping the result through “peace plans” that reward the aggressor and discipline the victim.
- The shift from defending principles to managing optics, where Western leaders talk about “dignified peace” while drafting deals that break their own rules on sovereignty.
- The slow erosion of trust in international law when Russia is promised a path back to the G8 and sanctions relief before accountability for war crimes or reparations is secured.
- The growing admiration for strongmen politics inside democracies, where praise of “tough leaders” turns into policy that treats smaller countries as bargaining chips.
- The message sent to every future aggressor: hold territory long enough, kill enough people, and eventually someone will offer you a “realistic” deal that protects your gains.
The Hermit take
Peace that tells the victim to carve up their own body is not peace. It is self harm with diplomatic witnesses.
If the so called guardians of a rules based order sell out those rules when it feels convenient, they are not defending freedom. They are franchising bullying with better branding.
Keep or toss
Verdict: Toss
Keep: serious pressure for a real ceasefire tied to withdrawal, justice, and long term security guarantees that do not punish Ukraine for surviving.
Toss: any “peace plan” that bans Ukraine from NATO, freezes a land grab in place, restores Russia to elite clubs, and then calls this humiliation a dignified compromise.
Sources
- Guardian summary of Trump Ukraine peace plan and its conditions for Ukraine and Russia
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/21/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-zelenskyy-territory-ceded-nato-russia-g8 - Irish Times breakdown of land concessions, army limits, and NATO ban in plan
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2025/11/21/land-giveaways-military-cuts-and-russia-readmitted-to-g8-whats-in-trumps-28-point-ukraine-peace-plan-clone/ - Euractiv on G8 return, sanctions relief, and structure of Trump plan
https://www.euractiv.com/news/trumps-28-point-ukraine-plan/ - Daily Sabah overview of plan details and concerns among European allies
https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/trump-plan-would-see-ukraine-cede-territory-russia-rejoins-g8 - Telegraph on Russia regaining frozen assets and rejoining G7 under peace proposal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/11/20/russia-to-be-welcomed-back-to-g7-under-proposed-peace-plan/ - LIGA.net publication of full 28 point draft text for the peace plan
https://news.liga.net/en/politics/news/media-disclosed-all-28-points-of-trumps-peace-plan-for-ukraine-and-russia - Guardian report on US and Russian officials drafting a plan based on Ukrainian capitulation
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/19/us-and-russian-officials-draft-new-peace-plan-based-on-capitulation-from-ukraine - UNHCR briefing on three years of war, displacement figures, and housing damage
https://ukraine.un.org/en/289506-unhcr-after-three-years-war-ukrainians-need-peace-and-aid - UNHCR emergency page giving headline figures for refugees and internally displaced persons
https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/ukraine/ - OHCHR protection of civilians report for October 2025
https://ukraine.ohchr.org/en/Protection-of-Civilians-in-Armed-Conflict-October-2025 - OHCHR casualty totals since February 2022, via summary of civilian casualties
https://ukraine.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/2025-11/Ukraine%20-%20protection%20of%20civilians%20in%20armed%20conflict%20%28October%20%202025%29_ENG.pdf - Wikipedia overview of casualties of the Russo Ukrainian war (compiling OHCHR data)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war - UN Security Council briefing on spike in civilian casualties in Kyiv in 2025
https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/officer-charge-europe-central-asia-and-americas-briefs-security-council-situation-ukraine-20-november-2025 - News coverage on how the proposed plan aligns with Russian demands and catches allies off guard
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-ukraine-peace-deal-appears-172729731.html - Al Jazeera analysis of the Trump 28 point plan and implications for Ukraine
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/21/trumps-28-point-ukraine-plan-in-full-what-it-means-could-it-work - Sky News report summarising military cuts and electoral timelines in the proposal
https://news.sky.com/story/trumps-28-point-ukraine-peace-plan-in-full-including-land-kyiv-must-hand-to-russia-and-when-elections-must-be-held-13473491 - Telegraph analysis of deadline pressure on Kyiv to accept the deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/11/21/russia-ukraine-peace-plan-analysis/ - Moscow Times commentary on how the plan punishes Ukraine while favouring Russia
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/21/trumps-peace-plan-favors-russia-putin-still-wont-accept-it-a91209 - Sky News – Trump peace plan: We could all pay if Europe does not step up and guarantee Ukraines security:
https://news.sky.com/story/trump-peace-plan-we-could-all-pay-if-europe-doesnt-step-up-and-guarantee-ukraines-security-13473738