Lede
Small neighbour, big homework: Moldova chose a path. Romania found one after tripping over its shoelaces.

What does not make sense

• “Stability” that needs a court-ordered do-over.
• “European values” recited on TV while Russian meddling runs wild online.
• Parties that fear the voters, then blame the voters.
• Slogans at home, spine abroad. Try swapping them.

Sense check / The numbers

• Moldova: On 28–29 September 2025, Maia Sandu’s pro-EU PAS won a clear parliamentary majority (about 50% of votes; ~55/101 seats). Heavy claims of Russian interference; diaspora decisive.
• Moldova’s EU course: A constitutional EU-membership referendum on 20 October 2024 passed by a wafer-thin margin (~50.4% “Yes”) despite alleged vote-buying networks.
• Romania: The 2024 presidential vote was annulled on 6 December 2024 over interference concerns. Rerun held May 2025.
• Romania’s result: On 18 May 2025, Bucharest’s mayor Nicușor Dan beat far-right George Simion (~54% to 46%). EU capitals exhaled.

The sketch

• Scene one: “Small country, big spine.” Moldova marks the ballot. Map glows Europe-blue.
• Scene two: “Big country, stumble–rerun.” Romania trips, dusts off, votes again. Court stamp fades.
• Scene three: “East to West, same lesson.” Ballot box, not bravado. Disinfo posters peel off a wall.

The Hermit take

Moldova did the boring thing that saves countries: vote, count, reform, repeat. Romania did it too, but only after face-planting. Keep the ballots. Bin the theatre.

Country notes (short, useful, sourced)

Moldova

• System: Parliamentary republic; president has limited executive power; government comes from parliament.
• President: Maia Sandu (re-elected 3 Nov 2024), pro-EU, anti-corruption.
• Government/majority: PAS holds a majority after the 28–29 Sep 2025 parliamentary election (≈55 seats). PM Dorin Recean remains the government’s face pending post-election arrangements.
• Direction of travel: EU candidacy deepened; EU-membership goal now baked into the constitution via the 20 Oct 2024 referendum. Russian interference alleged throughout.

Romania

• System: Semi-presidential; directly elected president; PM leads government.
• President: Nicușor Dan (sworn in late May 2025) after rerun.
• Prime Minister: Ilie Bolojan (designated 20–23 Jun 2025) leading a pro-EU coalition wrestling with a large deficit.
• 2024–25 election saga: First round annulled over interference; full rerun ordered; far-right led round one; centrist won the runoff.

One-paragraph profiles

Maia Sandu (Moldova): Former World Bank technocrat turned anti-corruption president. Survived a bruising 2024 race and a razor-thin EU referendum to lock in a European course. Now governs against hybrid meddling and a split map (urban/diaspora vs. Gagauzia/Transnistria).

Nicușor Dan (Romania): Mathematician and activist against city-hall graft. Won the presidency on 18 May 2025 after the court scrapped the 2024 contest. Mandate: pro-EU, anti-corruption, keep support for Ukraine, calm the deficit.

Bottom line

Moldova made a choice and paid the price in stress and disinfo to do it. Romania made the same choice, but only after hitting reset. The lesson is dull and true: institutions beat influencers.

Sources

• Moldova 2025 parliamentary election results and reactions (majority for PAS). The Guardian; Washington Post; Reuters.
• The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/29/pro-european-party-won-moldovas-election-but-obstacles-to-join-the-eu-remain
• The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/09/29/moldova-europe-election-result/
• Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldovas-pro-eu-government-edges-towards-majority-pivotal-vote-2025-09-28/
• Moldova EU-membership referendum result (Oct 20, 2024). Reuters; RFE/RL.
• Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldovas-eu-referendum-goes-wire-after-sandu-decries-vote-meddling-2024-10-21/
• RFE/RL: https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-eu-referendum-voters/33165642.html
• Romania annuls 2024 presidential vote; rerun ordered (Dec 6, 2024). Reuters; IFES.
• Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romanian-top-court-annuls-presidential-election-results-2024-12-06/
• IFES: https://www.ifes.org/publications/romanian-2024-election-annulment-addressing-emerging-threats-electoral-integrity
• Romania 2025 presidential runoff: Dan defeats Simion (May 18–19, 2025). Reuters; FT; The Guardian.
• Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romanians-vote-presidential-run-off-that-could-widen-eu-rifts-2025-05-17/
• Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/194a6fd6-9d90-4e25-8408-d6707eb818ca
• The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/19/romania-election-eu-relief-nicusor-dan-defeats-far-right-pro-russia-rival-george-simion
• Romania PM Ilie Bolojan nominated/appointed (June 2025). Reuters; Euronews; Xinhua/People’s Daily.
• Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/romanian-president-nominates-liberal-party-leader-ilie-bolojan-prime-minister-2025-06-20/
• Euronews: https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/21/romanias-new-president-nominates-centre-right-former-mayor-as-prime-minister
• Xinhua/People’s Daily: https://english.news.cn/20250624/2b9114b959ba4bf7bf1e32535aa155b0/c.html