Lede
Kings used to tax peasants. Now Whitehall does it with a press line about stability.

What does not make sense

• Calling it pro-worker while the broad base pays first.
• Cheering G7 growth tables while topping the G7 for inflation.
• Hinting the wealthy will pay, then designing fixes that sweep in everyone.
• Selling stability while floating more tax rises before real wages recover.

Sense check / The numbers

1. Reeves is openly considering both tax rises and spending cuts for 26 Nov 2025. That is the official line now.
2. She says higher taxes on the wealthy will be part of the story in the November Budget. Details still vague.
3. IMF: the UK is set to have the highest inflation in the G7 in 2025 and 2026, around 3.4 percent then easing, still above target.
4. At the same time, the UK is tipped to be the second-fastest-growing G7 economy in 2025. Headlines preen while households tread water.
5. Telegraph live coverage says the IMF judges UK tax rises outpacing other G7 nations. Treat as reported claim until the WEO tables are parsed line by line.

The sketch

Panel 1: A crown stamped TAX sits on a filing cabinet. Worker in hi-vis counts coins below. Cabinet caption: Stability.
Panel 2: Chart rockets upward. Tiny footnote reads: Highest G7 inflation. Basket of food shrinks.
Panel 3: Podium. Minister says: The wealthy will help. Crown rolls off the podium onto the worker’s head.

What to watch, not the show

• Threshold freezes and fiscal drag vs any true top-end reforms.
• OBR scorecard on who pays, by how much, and when.
• Real wages after inflation, not just quarterly GDP pats on the back.
• One-offs vs structural hikes in the Budget.
• Any credible path for inflation down without kneecapping services.

The Hermit take

Count what matters, and say what it is out of. Right now it is out of workers’ pockets.
Say the quiet part. If you will raise taxes, show the bill by decile and by pound.

Keep or toss

Toss.

Sources

Telegraph live blog line on G7 tax pace – https://www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/c/cf-cj/chris-price/
Reuters recap on tax rises and cuts under consideration – https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-reeves-considering-tax-increases-spending-cuts-budget-sky-news-reports-2025-10-15/
Reuters on markets and fiscal worries, Nov 26 Budget signal – https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-ftse-100-slips-fiscal-worries-burberry-shines-2025-10-15/
Guardian interview: higher taxes on wealthy part of story – https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/15/rachel-reeves-says-higher-taxes-on-wealthy-part-of-the-story-for-november-budget
Guardian: IMF says highest G7 inflation 2025 and 2026 – https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/14/uk-faces-highest-inflation-in-g7-this-year-and-next-imf-warns
AOL summary: UK second-fastest G7 growth in 2025 – https://www.aol.com/articles/uk-second-fastest-growing-g7-130735452.html