Lede
Drones are crossing borders. NATO is still crossing its fingers.
What does not make sense
- Machines in the sky, over NATO ground, and still treated as “incidents,” not threats.
- Years of talks, communiqués, and declarations—none of which stop a drone.
- The fear of escalation so strong that paralysis becomes policy.
- The illusion that silence will delay war, when in truth it invites it.
- Pretending 2014 was just a border skirmish, not the start of a long fuse.
Sense check
Ukraine’s warning was written in fire almost a decade ago. Each year of delay made the bill heavier. Waiting until a full crossing, with troops not drones, is not prudence—it is denial. And denial is always paid for by those on the ground, not those at the summits.
The sketch
- Scene one: A drone crosses the border, radar ping flashing.
- Scene two: Officials around a table: “We must express concern.” Pens scribble.
- Scene three: Soldiers run too late. Headline: “War has already begun.”
The Hermit take
If action waits until the sirens, it is not defence. It is theatre.
Keep or toss
Toss the empty communiqués. Keep the real lines of defence, before the line is gone.
The numbers that matter
- 2014: Russia annexed Crimea. NATO response: no direct intervention. Source: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/natos-slow-response-to-russia-since-2014/
- 2022: Full-scale invasion of Ukraine begins. NATO again avoids direct conflict. Source: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/natos-article-5
- 2023: At least 2 drones crashed inside NATO territory (Romania, Poland). Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64949582
- 2023–2024: Dozens of Russian drone strikes recorded close to NATO borders. Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-drones-strike-near-nato-borders-2023-09-28/
- 0: Times Article 5 invoked for drone incursions so far. Source: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_156301.htm
A drone is not just a drone. Each ping ignored makes the bill higher when the sirens start.
Sources
- NATO – Drones and airspace incidents on the Alliance’s borders:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_156301.htm - BBC News – NATO investigates drone crashes and cross-border incidents:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64949582 - Reuters – Russian drones strike near NATO borders, sparking warnings:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-drones-strike-near-nato-borders-2023-09-28/ - Atlantic Council – The lessons from NATO’s slow response since 2014:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/natos-slow-response-to-russia-since-2014/ - The Guardian – “NATO at risk of sleepwalking into wider conflict” (warnings on escalation):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/26/nato-risk-sleepwalking-into-wider-conflict - Council on Foreign Relations – NATO’s Article 5 and the risks of waiting too long:
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/natos-article-5