Lede

People do not fear the machine nearly as much as they fear the kind of owner and government now standing behind it.

Hermit Off Script

This is about AI and jobs, and I am already tired of the fake innocence around it. I do not buy this sermon that people hate AI because it is smart, useful, or somehow too futuristic for the common nerve. People hate the deal attached to it. We are told it is “just a tool”, which is a lovely phrase when the tool is being held over someone else’s payslip. The real scandal is not intelligence made by code, but stupidity made by policy. Governments we elected still behave as if the market will sort out the social wreckage after the feast. Apparently the script is to let people reach hunger, rage and revolt first, then maybe hold a consultation and launch a cheerful training portal. How modern. The rich already know what is coming, which is why they are stacking capital, compute, shares, and leverage while ordinary workers are handed optimism with a PDF attached. In a normal country, the first promise of AI would be better lives: shorter weeks, safer work, higher pay, less drudgery, more public gain. Only after that would anyone dare talk about taking jobs. Instead, companies rush to bank the upside first, then tell everyone else to be flexible, resilient, and grateful for the disruption. That is not progress. That is the old racket in a cleaner interface. People do not hate intelligence. They hate being asked to applaud while the ladder is quietly removed. They call it the future; most people would settle for rent, dignity, and dinner.

OpenAI’s NEW AGI Warning, Explained | TheAIGRID

What does not make sense

• We are told AI is only a tool, yet layoffs are already being sold as an efficiency strategy.
• Firms say AI will “free workers” from routine tasks, then somehow the worker disappears while the workload stays.
• Governments talk about opportunity and skills, but not nearly enough about ownership, bargaining power, or who gets the gains.
• The public is asked to trust a transition whose first visible outputs are fewer junior roles and fatter valuations.
• Productivity is treated like a miracle when it helps margins, and like a private matter when workers ask for shorter hours or better pay.
• The same people who praise disruption rarely volunteer their own income, shares, or board seats for disruption.

Sense check / The numbers

1. The ILO says 1 in 4 jobs worldwide is exposed to generative AI, but says transformation is more likely than outright replacement. It also estimates 3.3 per cent of global employment sits in the highest exposure category. [ILO]
2. The World Economic Forum says 170 million roles may be created by 2030 and 92 million displaced, but 41 per cent of employers still expect to reduce their workforce where AI automates tasks. [WEF]
3. In the UK, the government says it has already delivered over 1 million free AI courses, wants to upskill 10 million workers by 2030, and says wider AI adoption could unlock up to 140 billion pounds in annual economic output. [GOV.UK]
4. Challenger, Gray and Christmas says AI led all announced layoff reasons in March 2026 with 15,341 cuts, or 25 per cent of that month’s total. Since 2023, AI has been cited in 99,470 layoff plans. [Challenger]
5. Reuters reported Goldman Sachs economists said AI was responsible for 5,000 to 10,000 monthly net job losses last year in the most exposed US industries. [Reuters]
6. Even OpenAI wrote on 6 April 2026 that incremental policy updates “won’t be enough” and floated people-first ideas such as worker voice in deployment and a public wealth fund. [OpenAI]

The sketch

Scene 1: “Just a Tool”
Panel description + dialogue: A shiny AI terminal sits on a pedestal in the middle of an office while workers hold redundancy letters and a manager points proudly at the screen.
Manager: “Relax, it’s just a tool.”
Worker: “Funny how the tool only cuts one side.”

Scene 2: “National Skills Weather”
Panel description + dialogue: A minister stands in a storm of pink slips, handing out tiny course certificates like umbrellas made of tissue paper.
Minister: “Good news, we have a training badge.”
Worker: “Does it cover rent or just rain?”

Scene 3: “Shared Prosperity, Upstairs”
Panel description + dialogue: Executives stand on a glass balcony above the shop floor, sipping champagne while workers below push a giant wheel labelled “productivity”.
Executive: “The upside is extraordinary.”
Worker: “Yes, I can see where you put it.”

What to watch, not the show

• Who owns the models, the compute, the data, and the patents.
• Whether productivity gains show up in wages and hours, or only in margins and bonuses.
• Entry-level job erosion, because broken ladders create whole generations of stranded workers.
• Training schemes without bargaining power, income floors, or transition guarantees.
• Tax policy, especially whether labour keeps paying while automation and capital glide past.
• Whether worker consultation becomes law, or remains a decorative sentence in policy papers.
• The concentration of power in a few firms that can afford the infrastructure and shape the rules.

The Hermit take

AI is not the beast in the cave.
The beast is the old profit logic wearing a brighter mask.

Keep or toss

Keep / Toss
Keep the tool for safer work, dull work, and genuinely useful work.
Toss the model where the gains float upward and everyone else is told to retrain faster.

Sources

• Video inspiration – TheAIGRID: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7U2Y9t-aYc
• OpenAI industrial policy page: https://openai.com/index/industrial-policy-for-the-intelligence-age/
• ILO AI and jobs update: https://www.ilo.org/resource/news/one-four-jobs-risk-being-transformed-genai-new-ilo-nask-global-index-shows
• World Economic Forum Future of Jobs 2025 release: https://www.weforum.org/press/2025/01/future-of-jobs-report-2025-78-million-new-job-opportunities-by-2030-but-urgent-upskilling-needed-to-prepare-workforces/
• GOV.UK AI training expansion: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/free-ai-training-for-all-as-government-and-industry-programme-expands-to-provide-10-million-workers-with-key-ai-skills-by-2030
• GOV.UK AI Opportunities Action Plan one year on: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-opportunities-action-plan-one-year-on/ai-opportunities-action-plan-one-year-on
• Challenger layoff report: https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-march-cuts-rise-25-from-february-ai-leads-reasons/
• Reuters on AI-linked job cuts: https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/companies-cutting-jobs-investments-shift-toward-ai-2026-04-15/
• Prospect on AI at work: https://prospect.org.uk/policy-hub-ai-and-tech-at-work/