Lede
When war is pitched like a page-turner, someone’s selling books, not peace.

What does not make sense

• Novelised apocalypse packaged as foresight.
• “Blackouts and rockets” on page one; diplomacy buried in the appendix.
• Grand warnings about China and Russia while the public gets drills for candles.
• History used as theatre, not lesson: the “civilised” empires were also the conquerors.
• We fear AI, but not the very real budgets that make wars happen.

Sense check / The numbers

1. The WW3 script doing the rounds comes from General Sir Richard Shirreff, who previously wrote War with Russia, a “future history” warning of NATO–Russia conflict. It’s fiction marketed as a wake-up call. Fiction sells. Policy is hard.
2. The Doomsday Clock is at 89 seconds to midnight (Jan 2025), reflecting nuclear risk, wars, and tech shocks. It’s a warning, not a timetable.
3. Reality check on incentives: global military spending hit a record $2.72 trillion in 2024, up 9.4% year-on-year, the steepest rise since the Cold War. Hype has a budget line.

The sketch

• Scene one: A hardback hits the bestseller list. The jacket reads: “This is not a drill.”
• Scene two: A committee funds more kit. The flood map for your town stays in the drawer.
• Scene three: Another op-ed predicts Tuesday at dawn. Wednesday arrives. The invoice does too.

What to watch, not the show

• Thrillers framed as strategy pieces.
• Headlines that auction fear by the inch.
• Budgets that rise faster than scrutiny.
• Leaders who quote fiction and ignore inspectors.

The Hermit take

Prepare quietly. Spend publicly. On defence, yes — and on the plumbing that stops sparks becoming infernos.

Keep or toss

Toss the theatre. Keep the drills, treaties, and auditors.

Sources

• Daily Mail op-ed/serialised scenario (Shirreff): “How the West will come to a bloody end in World War 3.”
  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-15112503/How-West-bloody-end-World-War-3-blackout-rockets-China-General-RICHARD-SHIRREFF-predicts-terrifying-future.html
• Richard Shirreff’s earlier “future history” warning about NATO–Russia conflict (War with Russia).
  https://www.amazon.com/War-Russia-urgent-warning-immediate/dp/1473632250
  Oxford CCW review: https://www.ccw.ox.ac.uk/blog/2016/6/10/book-review-2017-war-with-russia-an-urgent-warning-from-senior-military-command-by-andrew-monaghan
• Doomsday Clock statement (2025): 89 seconds to midnight.
  https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/2025-statement/
  Overview: https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/
• SIPRI: World military expenditure record, $2,718bn in 2024 (+9.4%).
  https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024
  Fact sheet PDF: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2025-04/2504_fs_milex_2024.pdf